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European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf indicated that interest rates are set to decline, though the pace of this decrease will be influenced by economic data. He emphasized that while the current policy remains restrictive, uncertainty in trade partners' economic policies necessitates an open-minded approach to the rate reduction trajectory.
Former Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe criticized Governor Andrew Bailey for stifling essential discussions on the future of interest rates. Vlieghe emphasized the need for rate-setters to determine when to halt rate cuts, as current borrowing costs have decreased from 5.25% to 4.75%, with expectations of further reductions to 4% by the end of 2025.
Joachim Nagel, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, cautioned against hasty interest rate cuts despite inflation trends moving toward the ECB's target. He noted that as wage pressures ease, inflation in services is expected to decline, signaling a potential return to the 2% target.
The European Central Bank's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, emphasized the need for a cautious and step-by-step approach to lowering interest rates. In a recent speech, he highlighted the importance of agility in policymaking, given the numerous risks posed by global conflicts and political changes.
Mario Centeno, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, advocates for a gradual reduction of interest rates to around 2%. He emphasizes the importance of a steady approach rather than rushing, suggesting that the current quarter-point pace should be maintained.
New Zealand's central bank is poised to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, bringing the Official Cash Rate down to 4.25%. This move positions the Reserve Bank as one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its western counterparts, with one analyst predicting a potential 75-point reduction.
Israel's central bank maintained its interest rate at 4.5%, reflecting concerns over an economic slowdown due to ongoing conflict and rising inflation. This decision marks the seventh consecutive hold, with the next rate review set for early January 2024.
US Treasury yields are expected to decline as the incoming Trump administration, led by Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent, navigates policy constraints and aims to avoid inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue cutting interest rates, with a forecast of 125 basis points by the end of 2025, while the US dollar is viewed as overvalued, prompting strategies to reduce exposure. Investors are advised to lock in elevated yields on quality bonds as cash returns diminish.
Bitcoin's ascent towards the $100,000 mark has stalled, trading around $98,243.25 after a significant rally post-U.S. elections. Analysts attribute this pause to profit-taking by long-term holders and a recent surge in selling pressure, while some anticipate a potential correction amid high leverage in the market. Despite these challenges, there remains optimism for future gains, bolstered by a tightening supply and ongoing pro-crypto sentiment from political figures.
President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary has sparked optimism in global markets, with currencies rallying and the U.S. dollar index falling. Bessent, seen as a moderate choice, is expected to advocate for a softer approach to tariffs and fiscal responsibility, potentially easing concerns over inflation and deficit spending. His appointment could signal a shift towards pro-business policies, boosting investor confidence and impacting Asian currencies positively.
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